This month, Jillian Carson-Jackson et al. introduce the Claros method, which embraces the diversity of thinking in the maritime sector to identify key schools of thought to support decision-making.
Each month, we will be sharing a discussion piece written by a guest author from the maritime sector who can offer a unique or interesting perspective on an aspect of seafarers’ welfare. You can join the conversation on our social media channels – Facebook, X and LinkedIn.
This month, Jillian Carson-Jackson et al. introduce the Claros method, which embraces the diversity of thinking in the maritime sector to identify key schools of thought to support decision-making.
Mikael Lind, Wolfgang Lehmacher, Richard T. Watson, are experts in the fields of Maritime Informatics and data analysis. They are constantly focusing on the developing issues in the maritime industry. Jillian Carson-Jackson, past president of The Nautical Institute and Trustee of ISWAN, has worked with these experts for many years.
There are so many issues facing the maritime industry today, including the rights of seafarers, developments in technology, regulatory changes and challenges to address the UN Sustainable Development Goals. How do you decide when faced with so many issues, so many choices, and so many priorities? With all our different ideas, multiple and vague, often conflicting, points of view, it can be difficult to find that elusive ‘consensus’ point.
Instead, what if we could look at issues with this complexity in mind – create a way to gather input from experts looking to embrace, rather than limit, their different points of view to support decision-making? The need to find an ‘average’ or a consensus viewpoint can lack the richness of diversity, where we could benefit from the different schools of thought, providing a richness of perspective to support deeper understanding and likely increase acceptance of the decision reached.
Enter the Claros method, a new take on the traditional Delphi method. We recently used Claros to identify the key issues faced by maritime executives in 2024. In a three-step process, made possible through the use of artificial intelligence (AI), we identified the five schools of thought in the maritime industry today.
- First, use a Large Language Model (LLM) (in this case ChatGPT) to develop an initial list of issues on the topic (see Table 1).
- Then consult a pool of maritime experts to review the list and identify topics they would delete from the list as well as those they would add. (Table 1).
- In the last step, ask the experts to Q-Sort[1] the revised list, which was presented in a randomized order, into five ‘piles’ based on their level of agreement.
The ‘sorting’ stage had specific ‘rules’ – respondents were restricted to how many statements they could place in each pile as follows: two in the strongly agree pile, three in the agree, nine in the neutral, three in the disagree, and two in the strongly disagree. Unlike rating systems, Q-sorting forces respondents to identify their priorities.
Analysis
And the results are in! The five schools of thought – or hot topics – are:
School 1: People, technology, and biodiversity (19% of the participants and 17% of the variance)
Calling for balancing technology, nature, climate, and people. The experts placed equal importance on the integration of digital technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and automation, as well as biodiversity conservation through addressing the impact of shipping on the maritime natural ecosystem. They also include training and skill development, allowing for adapting to new technologies.
This school reflects a holistic human-machine approach to achieving the transition of the shipping industry towards a more nature-friendly and climate-neutral state.
School 2: Decarbonization (19% of the participants and 15% of the variance)
Focused on decarbonization and the concrete need to shift towards low-carbon and zero-carbon fuels to reduce shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions. The experts also noted the importance of port decarbonization, which includes the coordination of major port strategies for decarbonizing shipping.
The IMO 2023 Strategy on Reduction of Emissions from Ships addresses such concerns and its various indicative checkpoints/targets require a comprehensive approach to the maritime decarbonization ecosystem, which is reflected in this school’s priorities.
School 3: Protection and preservation (14% of the participants and 14% of the variance)
Within the implications of cyber risks and the human side of operations is crew welfare. The experts prioritized environmental targets, regulations and their enforcement, while emphasizing the need to ensure sufficient shipyard capacity for retrofits and new builds to meet decarbonization targets. Linked to this is a holistic view of some key priorities: protect ships and port facilities against cyber threats as well as the well-being and mental health of seafarers.
By broadening the view of the concept of ‘protection’ and risk management, this group highlights the issues of security and continuity where the ability to ensure consistent and timely crew changes is threatened by extended contracts and increasing operational restrictions. This reflects a broad concept of threats to the shipping industry, including the human side of shipping, with the need to have the willingness to act and find solutions.
School 4: Infrastructure and capacity (19% of the participants and 12% of the variance)
Aging infrastructure and the need for necessary upgrades and maintenance of ports, canals, and other maritime facilities, as well as the concern of a mismatch of supply with demand, especially with respect to container shipping capacity, are the key concerns of this school of thought.
This prioritization reflects the volatile market and financial situations of players in the shipping industry as well as the rising challenges around infrastructure chokepoints such as the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. Addressing these concerns requires accelerated digitalization, investment in upgrades, maintenance of infrastructure, and alternative routes, such as rail and road links in the Middle East and Central America.
School 5: Safety and security (14% of the participants and 11% of the variance)
Lastly, there is a need to prioritise rising risks and ripple effects across global supply chain networks caused by conflicts such as those in the Ukraine and Palestine, and the United States-China trade and technology war. Omissions and neglects of the past have amplified these geopolitical tensions and shocks. Security is threatened by rising incidents of piracy, especially in the Gulf of Guinea and the Straits of Malacca, while safety is jeopardized by the shadow fleet of aging, poorly insured tankers, with unclear ownership.
Concluding thoughts – and what’s next?
On behalf of the authors of the study, I want to thank the maritime experts who participated in this Claros study for their valuable contribution. We call upon the stakeholders of the maritime ecosystem to address the concerns surfaced in this review in their research, policymaking, and business strategies.
A common theme across the five schools is a concern for people, the environment, and maritime assets, with concerns of today’s world of increasing misalignments and rising tensions, resulting in rising risks, vulnerability, disruptions, and additional costs. The good news is that there is a willingness to act and address the challenges. But do we really have a choice? The answer is most definitely ‘No’. From the results of our survey, we see a key need, and desire, to act on these issues now.
Now you know about the Claros method, how else could we make use of our diversity to identify schools of thought to support the maritime industry?
[1] Q-sort was originally developed by physicist-psychologies William Stephenson in the 1930s. It is a ranking approach that includes aspects of ‘subjectivity’ – a person’s feeling, or opinions.